[SNE] The Volatility Set 2018 (third part)

Finishing in this third installment, the theme of the Volatility Set 2018, we expose the following elements of influence to the Set and, where appropriate, conclusive points:

- BREXIT. The United Kingdom is not a strategic partner of Mexico, but of our partners, the United States. and Canada. Therefore, the impact of BREXIT generates damage to global and then Mexican indicators. The negotiations will surely remain complicated, and be generating results of damage to the British economy, which indirectly generates global volatility and then in Mexico.

The dates of negotiations, monetary policy decisions of the Bank of England, and, if applicable, its business links with our partners, will determine the impact that it generates on the exchange rate in volatility.

- China. As the second economy in the world, propped up soon to be the first, its acceleration or economic slowdown causes a lot of global volatility. Only today with the announcement of "probable" suspension in the purchase of US Treasury bonds, has already impacted long-term interest rates.

The pattern of influence in the Volatility Set is based on reports of internal economic indicators of that nation, as well as growth, inflation, monetary policy, production, etc. On those dates of those reports, it will surely generate a volatile impact on Mexico.

- Commodities. Derived from the ambiguous scenario of economic growth between 2009 and 20017, economies such as Mexico, which depend in some way on commodities, are in check of their more expansive growth due to the low prices of commodities, which in turn depend on the demand that countries such as China or USA, exercise those commodities.

Then, commodity consumption reports from the leading nations of the world economy, reports from their own economies and elements of monetary influence such as the dollar itself, will recurrently generate volatility indicators for these countries, such as Mexico.

- Greece, et al. The issue of the sovereign debt crisis of Greece and other European nations that erupted after the 2008-2009 global recession is not yet finalized. There are payment deadlines, dates for agreements and elections that will surely influence the outcome of debt payment or default, where in addition to a normalization of rates scenario, each time it is more difficult to refinance debts at better interest rates (not impossible).

Therefore, at the crucial dates for Greece and the other nations (Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland, etc.), they will surely cause, and especially if the result is bad, volatile impacts in the global indicators and therefore in Mexico.

As noted, we depend too much on many subjects. Globalization is a fact, and although some politicians promise protectionism and closure, it is really impossible to isolate oneself from the subject.

Follow the topics mentioned and others that may appear in the Volatility Set, it is essential to make better decisions. And a decision maker is any economic agent, whether it is characterized as a company, government or even an ordinary consumer. The Solo Business Bulletin provides follow-ups to these issues, to strengthen their economic cultural background and their decision-making as an individual economic agent.